Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
